The Fairs, Shows, and Sales That Actually Matter This Fall

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As sales announcements from Frieze Seoul flooded my inbox Wednesday afternoon, summer suddenly felt like a distant dream. We are well and truly back.

The art world’s fall season is stacked, as always, and the mood shaping up is a strange, tentative kind of good. Here’s what’s actually worth your calendar space between now and December—and what it says about where the market’s headed.

Fairs to Hit

There’s no getting around it: When it comes to fairs, Art Basel Paris is THE event of the year, no matter how much spin there is about why it’s “not a competition.” (Spoiler: It’s always a competition when it comes to business.) I canvassed half a dozen advisors and all of them said the fair is their top priority this fall for all the reasons you’d expect. “Paris is always a good idea,” Benjamin Godsill said, quoting Audrey Hepburn , adding that Basel Paris is “perfectly sized” with “super high-quality booths.” Adam Green echoed this sentiment, noting top collectors are simply “choosing Paris.”

Fairs offering something distinctive and new have real pull, however, especially as generational tastes and global wealth centers shift. New York advisor Ashley Carr said she and her business partner, Suzanne Modica, want to hit November’s Art Week Tokyo , not least to check out the new Tokyo Jazz Club , an outgrowth of Basel Social Club , “which always transforms our way of looking at art, and helps inspire us with new ideas for clients.” Amar Zahr of AAZ Advisory —which operates between New York, Berlin, and Dubai, and has a large UAE collector base—is eager to see how the inaugural Frieze Abu Dhabi in November “positions itself within the region’s rapidly evolving artistic landscape.” (It’s a shame the much-anticipated opening of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi doesn’t coincide with the fair, if you ask me.)

Shows to See

New York and London still reign supreme when it comes to mounting must-see shows, especially since many galleries save their strongest bets for the September-October exhibition slots. Carr pointed to some solid solo outings opening this month in New York, including Mexican painter Ana Segovia ’s debut at Kurimanzutto , Michael E. Smith ’s minimalist sculptures at Maxwell Graham ’s new space in Tribeca, and a suite of works from the 1990s by artist-musician Jutta Koether at Galerie Buchholz.

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Godsill lauded the New Museum for its forthcoming Arthur Jafa survey, opening September 25. “He’s exactly the kind of dynamic and incisive artist we should be celebrating,” he said. The artist also co-headlines with Richard Prince in Helter Skelter at the Fondazione Prada in Venice through November; the acclaimed show has been dubbed by some the unofficial U.S. pavilion. I have a hunch we’ll see plenty of his works popping up at fairs and auctions over the coming months. (To wit: Sprüth Magers moved Jafa’s 2024 work Mike and Big for $85,000 in the opening hours of Frieze Seoul . At Art Basel in June, editioned works were selling for around $95,000.)

London’s luster is returning after a few tough years. ( Chanel ’s Yana Peel recently proclaimed that “Cool Brittannia” is back , so it must be true!) The city lost a couple of esteemed young galleries over the summer, but there’s new blood in Mayfair: Berlin transplant Heidi inaugurates its Maddox Street space this month with works by Brook Hsu , marking the New York artist’s U.K. debut. Meanwhile, blue- chip outfits are bringing out the hits: Gagosian is staging a Magritte bonanza as the mega-dealer continues to double down on historical artworks . It’s sure to sell well given the unflappable demand for Surrealism lately. Ahead of Frieze Week , Thaddaeus Ropac is mounting a bangin’ Georg Baselitz show—the first since the artist’s death in April .

Auctions to Watch

According to Green, this fall auction season feels “particularly important” because, for the first time in several years, the auction houses have “real momentum” following the successful May sales in New York and June’s bumper Lewis Collection sale in London . So far, that momentum has been concentrated at the top, fueled by big prices for major trophy lots, so Green said he’ll be watching whether it eventually reaches the day sales, or stays confined to the higher-value evening events.

The latter seems likely based on consignments so far, which are masterpiece heavy. Sotheby’s landed the $450 million Blaquier Collection , a trove of Impressionist and Post-Impressionist masterworks by Van Gogh, Degas, Pissarro, and Renoir , freed up after a legal dispute over its export from Argentina. Though the full list of lots included in the collection has yet to be confirmed, my colleague Katya Kazakina, who broke the news of the consignment, noted that a work from Paul Cézanne ’s “Harlequin” series alone could top $120 million, while a Van Gogh chestnut- tree canvas could reach $150 million to $200 million.

Within the past week, Christie’s announced two headline Modernist lots for its 20th/21st Century Evening Sale during London’s Frieze Week: a never-before-auctioned Piet Mondrian , Composition III (1922), which is estimated to bring in £20 million–£30 million ($27.2 million–$40.8 million), and a newly restituted Wassily Kandinsky , Das bunte Leben (1907), recovered after a decade-long legal battle and expected to fetch over $30 million.

Advisors were clear that the market remains “measured,” especially since macroeconomic volatility remains. “While there is a sense of optimism coming out of the summer, looming geopolitical crises could still weigh on confidence, and fiscal policies such as tariffs could dampen the mood,” Green said.

Still, there’s room to hope that things will keep trending up. Godsill cut through the hand-wringing: “It seems to me that plenty of people will remain who can afford to collect art—presuming they don’t run a deficit of imagination or curiosity—no matter if the Fed clicks up rates a basis point or two.”

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